Content Editor for Climate Change Policy and Adaptation (Russia/Netherlands)24 September 2019
As a co-lead of the Climate Action Summit’s Nature-based Solutions action area, China urges incorporating nature-based solutions in the post-2020 global biodiversity framework and giving consideration to the potential of natural systems to facilitate mitigation and adaptation.
On Mitigation, China will, inter alia, enhance cooperation on a “standard system for greenhouse gas emissions control and capacity building”.
17 September 2019: The Government of China has released a statement, outlining the country’s efforts under and position on each of the nine action areas of the UN Secretary-General’s Climate Action Summit held in New York, US, on 23 September.
As a co-lead of the Climate Action Summit’s Nature-based Solutions action area, China calls for a systematic understanding of the relationship between human beings and nature, full recognition of the ecological value of earth, reliance on natural forces to deal with the risks posed by climate change and fostering a low-emission and climate-resilient society. It urges incorporating nature-based solutions in the post-2020 global biodiversity framework and giving consideration to the potential of natural systems to facilitate mitigation and adaptation.
On Social and Political Drivers, China signals its willingness to work with all Parties to strengthen policy support and social policy incentives and play a positive role in promoting the comprehensive and effective implementation of the UNFCCC and the Paris Agreement on climate change.
On Youth and Public Mobilization, China calls on governments to educate young people about environmental protection, listen to their suggestions, support youth in participating in climate action and facilitate their employment and entrepreneurship in related areas.
On Energy Transition, China undertakes to enhance cooperation with other countries to build a clean, low-carbon, safe and efficient energy system, promote sustainable energy development worldwide and safeguard global energy security.
On Industry Transition, China expresses readiness to work with all Parties to accelerate low-carbon transformation, promote green manufacturing, innovate green technologies and enhance industrial energy efficiency and carbon emissions reduction.
On Infrastructure, Cities and Local Action, China looks forward to strengthening cooperation and exchanging experiences with other countries on local climate action, green infrastructure development and climate-adaptive urban development.
On Mitigation, China will: strengthen communication with all other Parties on the implementation of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and the formulation of mid- and long-term climate strategies; enhance cooperation on a “standard system for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions control and capacity building”; and promote the transition to a low-carbon economy.
On Resilience and Adaptation, China expresses commitment to strengthening climate adaptation and expanding international cooperation through policy communications with all stakeholders to build a “climate-adaptive society.”
Climate change is contributing to a litany of conditions that can make swimming, snorkeling and surfing more dangerous in Hawaii waters — and it’s only expected to get worse in the years ahead, according to scientists, health experts and ocean safety officials.
Lifeguards have already had to relocate their towers multiple times as beach erosion alters the shoreline. Some of that is natural, but some of it is from rising seas, stronger surf and more frequent severe storms.
Emergency responders have started tracking heat-related health problems as trade winds blow less frequently and temperatures continue to break records.
County and state officials are also bracing for bigger populations of jellyfish from warmer waters, more powerful rip currents from higher sea levels, and increased exposure to water-borne diseases from flooding and runoff.
Honolulu Emergency Services Director Jim Howe said the county has long adapted to gradual changes in coastal conditions and weather patterns that affect ocean safety. But in recent years, he has had to refocus planning efforts as climate change has quickened the rate of change and exacerbated problems.
“From our perspective, this is accelerating,” he said. “We’re doing our level best to make sure we’re like a coconut tree in a storm — that we bend with the wind and not break.”
The lifeguard tower at Ehukai Beach, also known as Pipeline, has been relocated three times. It has affected guards’ line of sight.
Cory Lum/Civil Beat
There are 42 lifeguard towers around Oahu, guarding many of the most popular places but far from all of the island’s 179 beaches. It’s a similar story on Maui, Kauai and the Big Island.
Lifeguards are changing how they approach ocean safety in light of the changing conditions. That has meant moving towers and becoming more mobile in the near term.
On Oahu’s Windward side, the county has had to move the Kailua Beach lifeguard tower three times due to erosion. It now sits 40 feet farther back, Howe said. The Kualoa tower was also relocated due to erosion.
In Waikiki, the county had to rebuild the main tower in front of the police substation because the beach lost so much sand that it undermined the concrete columns the tower was sitting on and it was tilting forward.
Howe said it cost “considerable sums,” but did not have exact figures.
Lifeguarded Beaches In Hawaii
On the North Shore, the Ehukai (Pipeline) and Sunset Beach towers have each been relocated three times. And the Chun’s Reef tower was also moved because of erosion.
At one point, the Ehukai tower was strapped to coconut trees to hold it in place, Howe said. Its new location appears more stable, but it cut off some sight lines looking east toward Sunset Beach because trees are in the way, he said, and the trees should really stay because they help stabilize the shore.
The Kawaena tower, also on the North Shore, had an 8-foot drop from the bottom of the stairs to the beach after severe erosion, Howe said. It was later moved back, too.
“We’re seeing more of these incidents at more locations, affecting more places.” — Jim Howe, Honolulu emergency services director
“We’re seeing more of these incidents at more locations, affecting more places,” Howe said.
The county is in the third year of a nine-year plan to replace all of its lifeguard towers, a project estimated to cost $2.5 million.
Changes in weather patterns in recent years, from higher tides to heavier rains, have led to faster-eroding beaches. Howe said the siting of the new towers must take that into consideration.
A lifeguard tower in Kekaha on the west side of Kauai had to be relocated due to erosion.
Courtesy: Kauai County
Part of the solution is portable towers, which can easily be moved back as the ocean encroaches.
Maui’s acting battalion chief, Jeff Giesea, said the portable towers the county recently bought can help lifeguards respond to rising sea levels as well as approaching hurricanes, which are expected to become more frequent.
“We believe we have a responsibility to incorporate these eventualities into our long-term planning,” he said. “Hoping for some technological miracle that will save us from having to adjust to the impacts of global warming is simply not a viable option, nor is hoping that the nearly unanimous opinions of experts in the field worldwide turn out to be wrong.”
A lifeguard tower in Kee Beach on the north shore of Kauai had to be relocated due to erosion from unprecedented rain and flooding in April.
Courtesy: Kauai County
Kauai has faced similar issues. The county has moved two lifeguard towers due to erosion and shifting shorelines, but officials are unable to directly link it to climate change.
The Kekaha lifeguard tower, on the west side, was moved in 2011 and 2012, Deputy Fire Chief Kilipaki Vaughan said. And the Kee tower on the north shore was relocated in April after unprecedented rainfall flooded and eroded the beach.
In some places around the state, the counties are running out of room to move the towers back any farther. One of the Waikiki towers has routinely had waves rolling under it the past few years, and the tower in front of the Duke Kahanamoku statue is set back about as far as it can go with the road and other infrastructure behind it.
Visitors routinely ignore warning signs and lifeguards cautioning them against entering the dangerous shorebreak at Sandy Beach.
Cory Lum/Civil Beat
Kauai, like Honolulu and the other counties, has also been increasing its lifeguards’ mobility to speed response times, especially to unguarded beaches.
“In tune with the changing of climate, the Ocean Safety Bureau has responded operationally with roving patrol Jet Ski units,” Vaughan said.
“These units are no longer pinned to a particular lifeguard tower,” he said, adding that they can respond to the “seasonal demands of beach attendance as well as the circumstantial demands of mother nature.”
Oahu guards have mitigated the sightline issue at Ehukai in part by using ATVs more to drive along the beach, Howe said.
These websites contain important information that can keep you safe.
HIOceanSafety: Six things to know before going to the beach in Hawaii.
Hawaii Beach Safety: Updates every 15 minutes with ocean conditions at beaches around the state, current surf and wind reports and the latest hazards and warnings.
Honolulu’s Ocean Safety division is up to 16 mobile units now, which consist of basically a small fire engine type truck with one or two personnel, he said. They launch rescue craft into the water and are used to pick up lifeguards at one tower to bring them to support an emergency elsewhere.
The units broaden the patrol area and are able to be deployed wherever lifeguards are most needed on any given day, a degree of flexibility that will become all the more useful as climate change affects ocean conditions.
Following Mayor Kirk Caldwell’s citywide directive, Howe said a new lifeguard training facility in Ewa Beach and a storage facility in Kailua have been located outside the 3-foot sea level rise exposure area that scientific modeling shows will likely be underwater by the end of this century or sooner.
Howe hopes this will protect pricey life-saving equipment, like all-terrain vehicles and personal watercraft, that must be moved to higher ground when serious storms approach the islands.
The equipment needs to remain easily accessible, but also safe from heavy rains, flooding and whipping winds that the islands are expected to experience more often in the coming years. The new Kailua facility, to be built on a bluff about 250 yards from the beach, is being constructed to withstand Category 2 hurricanes, Howe said.
“That will become important,” he said. “We expect more hurricanes and tropical storm events as impacts of global warming.”
As sea levels rise an expected 3 feet by 2100 — some studies show it could reach 6 feet — waves that would break farther offshore may start pounding closer to the shoreline, he said. That’s because deeper waters don’t allow the waves to dissipate as much.
“Shorebreak is a potential killer,” Fletcher said. “It can slam you and you get your cervical injuries.”
In between sets of waves, all that energy will be surging offshore, potentially creating stronger, pulsating rip currents — and in areas that historically may not have had one.
“The current will increase for seemingly no apparent reason,” Fletcher said. “Wave characteristics on the beach that we’re used to may change if we’re not paying attention.”
On Friday, a Kauai lifeguard roving Kealia beach on an ATV rescued a 21-year-old male visitor who was swimming that afternoon when he got sucked out in a known rip current on the south end.
Lifeguards used CPR and an automated external defibrillator to revive him. Firefighters and medics arrived to help, and he regained his pulse and was taken to the hospital, a county release says.
A warmer and more acidic ocean will do more than just cause corals to bleach, Fletcher said. Reefs may collapse as a result of the unhealthy corals, which could translate to deeper waters and impacts similar to those caused by rising sea levels.
Visitors constituted more than half of 712 ocean drownings during the past decade in Hawaii, far outpacing the rate of local residents. And that’s before climate change further complicates safety efforts.
While a small body of literature says overall wave height in the Pacific will decline because overall wind speed will decrease, there is also science that suggests Hawaii will see extremely large wave seasons on the islands’ north shores due to more frequent and stronger El Niños, Fletcher said.
That’s great news for big wave surfers, potentially dangerous for inexperienced surfers, and not so awesome for most of the surfing community.
“This all triggers a need for the lifeguards to be aware,” Fletcher said, adding that there should be increased climate change training for ocean safety officers.
The packed conference room was glued to their presentations on how climate change, sea level rise and weather patterns affect ocean safety.
Lifeguards have started paying more attention to jellyfish, especially large-scale impacts, Howe said. As the ocean temperature increases from the effects of global warming, jellyfish populations are expected to expand.
Active monitoring is already happening in the Atlantic Ocean and Mediterranean Sea, off the coast of Spain. Now Honolulu ocean safety officers have begun monitoring changes in jellyfish and hydrozoan populations, Howe said, specifically the Portuguese man-of-war and box jellyfish.
Major changes in overall trends have not been documented, Howe said, but there was a big event Tuesday. Lifeguards posted warning signs and verbally warned hundreds of people about an influx of man-of-war at Windward Oahu beaches.
There were 30 stings and an estimated 500 man-of-war at Makapuu Beach, 80 stings and thousands of man-of-war at Waimanalo Beach, and 100 stings and thousands of man-of-war at Kailua Beach, a Honolulu ocean safety spokeswoman said.
Rising Health Risks
Fletcher also has concerns about more hot, windless days leading to serious health issues or even death, as other parts of the world have experienced.
Howe said Honolulu hasn’t seen an uptick yet but the county is on the lookout. So is Hawaii Health Department Director Bruce Anderson.
“There are increased health risks with rising temperatures,” he said, adding that people with cardiovascular disease are especially at risk when it’s hot outside.
But that’s not the only thing Anderson is watching for when it comes to staying safe in the ocean as the climate changes.
As rainfall patterns change and erosion increases not just along the shoreline but in the mountains, more freshwater will enter the ocean — carrying with it everything it passes along the way. Debris, sewage, trash, chemicals, pesticides.
The state health director anticipates more brown water advisories as climate change affects rainfall and erosion, causing more potentially polluted runoff. Here is Kaneohe Bay after passing showers last year.
Cory Lum/Civil Beat
Certain bacteria is particularly concerning.
“When we have storm events, whether it’s a hurricane or tropical storm, we see heavy rains that causes streams to overflow and we see flooding in low-lying areas,” Anderson said. “When that happens, expect to see increased exposure to bacteria that causes infectious diseases like leptospirosis.”
Last week, advisories were in effect for Kailua Bay on Oahu and Hilo Bay on Hawaii island. The Department of Health’s Clean Water Branch now lets people receive email notifications whenever a beach or brown water advisory is posted or canceled.
“We’ve already seen record rainfalls and more storms coming our way, and we’re posting more beaches as a result of that,” Anderson said. “I can only think that’s going to be an increasingly important risk going forward.”
“A lot of it is just going to be public education so they’re aware of the risk.” — Bruce Anderson, Hawaii health director
The increased flooding also ups the risk of cesspools leaching into streams and the ocean. Hawaii has some 88,000 cesspools — leading the nation — and it’s estimated to cost $1.75 billion to convert them to more sanitary systems.
The Department of Health in 2017 published a report that prioritized the places, mostly rural areas, where cesspools presented the most danger to human wellbeing.
“It’s a big problem,” Anderson said. “A lot of it is just going to be public education so they’re aware of the risk and avoid swimming when we have heavy rains.”
The Department of Health is still working on defining what health risks associated with climate change will be of most concern and is working with other agencies to try to anticipate what will happen.
“Hopefully, we can find ways to address many of those issues,” Anderson said.
Sea Walls Shrinking Beaches
Hawaii taxpayers are already spending millions of dollars to replenish the sand at the most popular beaches, like Waikiki, as erosion eats away the shoreline.
At the same time, county and state agencies are reckoning with policies that for decades have destroyed beaches, whether it’s allowing development too close to the coast to permitting sea walls to protect private property at the expense of public resources.
When a property is armored, it affects neighboring beaches by changing the natural process.
Erosion routinely exposed the concrete foundation of the old Waikiki Tavern at Kuhio Beach. The two photos were taken about six months apart this year.
“When we lose the beach, it does become more dangerous for folks,” Stanbro said.
He anticipates changing dynamics when it comes to ocean safety as Hawaii loses some of its beaches to rising seas and erosion. More people will be jammed onto smaller areas, he said, and there could be more debris in the water. It also gets harder to get in and out of the water.
Hawaii has already seen erosion uncover concrete, rubble and rebar on beaches, the remnants of developments that were buried under sand.
The old foundation of Waikiki Tavern is regularly exposed at Kuhio Beach in Waikiki, Stanbro said, presenting a hazard to beachgoers. The county has tried to ameliorate it with “sand blankets,” and last year the state allocated money toward projects that could provide a permanent fix.
Part of the challenge has been determining whose responsibility it is to clear that stuff out, Stanbro said.
“Humanity has never dealt with this before,” he said. “We don’t have a guidebook.”
*Disclaimer: Sierra Club Hawai’i believes that tree planting is an effective way to combat carbon emissions, heat waves, and restore our native forests. Though, it is a large undertaking to be affective. Our Tree Planting Program (check website for more info) is an opportunity to be a part of the mission to reduce carbon emissions on our islands. However, we still demand policy change to radically shift Hawai’i towards a carbon neutral economy and society.***
Planting trees is now the best way to tackle rising temperatures and climate change, according to a study this week from a group of scientists.
Trees absorb carbon dioxide which means they can help to stop rising temperatures around the world.
They also keep soil moist and reduce the risk of flooding.
So if this is really “the best climate change solution available today” what is being done around the world to plant more trees?
The Great Green Wall:
There is an 8,000 km wall of trees being built in Africa – making it the largest living structure on the planet once it’s finished.
The wall aims to spread across the width of Africa and through more than 20 countries including Senegal, Nigeria and Ethiopia.
The UK government announced it wants more than 10 million trees to be planted across England and it would create a £60 million fund to do so.
That includes £10 million to plant at least 100,000 trees in towns and cities.
The Woodland Trust – the UK’s leading woodland conservation charity – is aiming to plant 64 million trees in the next 10 years. To meet its aim, it’s giving away hundreds of thousands of trees for free to schools and communities to encourage tree planting.
“Honestly, we’re just trying to keep up with demand,” the state’s trails manager said.By Stewart Yerton / July 17, 2019 Reading time: 9 minutes.
Editor’s Note: “Tourism’s Tipping Point,” is an ongoing series that looks at the future of the vacation industry in Hawaii.
By almost any standard, Hawaii’s hiking trails are a world-class recreational resource. The state’s trail system alone encompasses 855 miles of trails and access roads, from epic, remote routes like the Kalalau trail on Kauai’s Napali coast to easily accessible day hikes like the 2.5- mile Makiki loop trail.
But hordes of tourists have made the system increasingly difficult to manage. The number of visitors to Hawaii is expected to top 10 million this year. Those numbers, combined with the increasing popularity of hiking and the popularization of even the most remote trails, are creating lots of stress for trail managers.
The results are well-known to residents: cars clogging residential streets around trailheads, eroding trails, hikers getting lost or injured or simply ignoring no trespassing or warning signs.
Signs posted by the Department of Land and Natural Resources, like these at Manoa Falls, often do little to discourage hikers from visiting spots deemed dangerous by the state.
Stewart Yerton/Civil Beat
It’s a struggle to keep up, said Mike Millay, who runs the Hawaii Department of Land and Natural Resources’ Na Ala Hele trails management program, which manages some 850 miles of trails statewide.
In a first sign of taking more aggressive steps to reduce the impact of hikers, the state has started prohibiting parking at the trailhead for the Kalalau trail on the North Shore of Kauai. But so far officials haven’t taken major steps to restrict access to trails.
“Honestly, we’re just trying to keep up with demand,” Millay said.
One major new initiative could help state officials at least quantify the demand, which for now remains largely unknown. Although there’s plenty of anecdotal evidence that many trails are growing increasingly popular, gathering data is difficult. With only a few exceptions, trails don’t typically have monitors or attendants counting people at the trailheads.
Millay said the state might consider limiting the use of some trails, but first it needs to know how many people are using them.
”Those are indicators that we need to know,” Millay said.
An initiative the Hawaii Tourism Authority has launched might provide some answers. In June, HTA finalized a contract with UberMedia of Pasadena, Calif., under which UberMedia will use cell phone data to track specific locations that tourists visit.
Debbie Newton, a recent visitor from Amarillo, Texas, says her group got lost near Oahu’s Valley of the Temples. Now, the hike is memorialized on her Facebook page.
Gladys Kong, UberMedia’s chief executive, said the company will report data in aggregate, but still provide enough detail that HTA can see patterns. For example, she said, the data will show how many people from a region like New England visited a certain area during a certain time period versus people from another market.
Curt Cottrell, who runs Hawaii’s state parks system, said UberMedia’s system could be used to count hikers on certain trails and figure out where they are from, without the need for staff or automated traffic counters.
“The data will just confirm what we already viscerally know as managers. It’ll just just give us numbers to leverage across the street,” he said, referring to the Hawaii State Capitol.
For now, trail managers, at least for Oahu trails, rely on a far less scientific metric to figure out what trails are the most popular: rescue information from the Honolulu Fire Department. Paradoxically, some of the easiest hikes have the most rescues. That’s because they are easy and accessible, which attracts a lot of people, some of whom come unprepared.
The map above shows “hot spots” where the Honolulu Fire Department conducts the most frequent rescues. Take Diamond Head, for instance, which is marked with a target-shaped spot on the southeastern edge of Oahu.
The Honolulu Fire Department rescues on average one person a week from Diamond Head, the iconic volcano, said Socrates Baratakos, an assistant fire chief.
But the data on fire department rescue hotspots is limited, Millay said, because it doesn’t document actual trails, just the general area.
“You don’t know exactly what the precise location is,” he said.
Social media also can create headaches for people trying to manage trails.
The Haiku Stairs trail is a case in point. Managed by the Honolulu Board of Water Supply, the trail is supposed to be off limits to the public. But that doesn’t stop people from not only wandering into the area but also chronicling their adventures on sites like Instagram.
One recent post by someone named adventuresofthetravelingyogi, for example, shows a woman climbing the long vertiginous stairs, which her post calls “possibly the greatest attraction on the entire island.”
Kathleen Pahinui, a public information officer for the Board of Water Supply, said the issues involve not only public safety but also concerns for the watershed where the staircase trail is located.
“When people go up there in droves, it really can affect the watershed,” she said.
The Haiku Stairs trail remains a popular hike even though it is supposed to be closed to the public.
Nick Grube/Civil Beat
Pahinui said the board has asked people to take down advertisements and even, in one case, a newspaper article promoting the trail. That’s “made a dent” in the people trespassing on the trail, she said.
But it’s still a problem.
“It’s locals, too,” Pahinui stressed. “Let’s not just pick on the poor tourists.”
So far, Hawaii lawmakers have been unwilling to provide more funding to help manage the trails. The funding system for Na Ale Hele is complicated even by government budget standards. It gets bits of money from a variety of sources: a portion of the state gasoline tax, federal grants, private contributions, user fees and a portion of the state hotel tax.
But the money doesn’t go directly to Na Ala Hele. Instead, it goes into a special fund used for all kinds of things, including buying land, paying off debts and protecting the state’s water resources.
This isn’t to say Na Ala Hele doesn’t have money to spend.
But some believe the trails need more funding — and a more clear source of funding.
In a bill introduced in 2019, Sen. Laura Thielen, a former DLNR chair known for her stances to protect the environment, laid out the issues. Heavy use and limited resources have curbed the level of maintenance needed, the bill said.
The Honolulu Fire Department is having to conduct three times as many trail rescues as it did a decade ago, the bill said. People living in the residential neighborhood near trailheads are suffering from “blatant littering, tracking of mud on neighborhood residents’ lawns, and illegal parking.”
The measure requested that $1.8 million be earmarked for the trails program. But after passing out of the Senate Water and Land Committee, the measure died in the Ways and Means Committee, without a hearing.
One trail singled out in the bill was the Manoa Falls hike. Located in the back of Manoa Valley, the trail is close enough to Waikiki that the tops of the tourist district’s high rises can be seen in the distance from near the trailhead.
Alonzo, left, Vicki, center, and Skye Ocaranza of Turlock, California pose for a requisite selfie after hiking to Manoa Falls.
Stewart Yerton/Civil Beat
The trail, which leads to a 150-foot waterfall, is just over 1.5 miles long with relatively little elevation gain. It’s an easy hike, close to thousands of hotel rooms with a decent payoff at the end.
That explains why the trails attract about 850 hikers a day, according to Millay, and why DLNR is closing the trail intermittently over the summer to perform maintenance funded by the Hawaii Tourism Authority.
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On a recent Sunday afternoon, the trail was characteristically crowded with hikers.
Despite the changes set to close the trail the next day for maintenance, the hikers seemed to be having no problems. Some were hiking in bare feet or rubber slippers; one young mom carried a toddler on her hip. Among those on the trail were Debbie Newton and Charlta King, English teachers from Amarillio, Texas.
The trail seemed to be in good shape to them.
Bt they couldn’t say the same for the Puu Maelieli trail on Oahu’s Windward side, which they had joined a Meetup group to hike a couple of days before.
The hike up to the pillboxes overlooking Kaneohe Bay was fine, Newton said. The trip back: not so good. The trail was overgrown in places with little signage, King said. And the group leader got everyone lost, Newton said. Really lost.
“We thought we were going to have to eat each other,” she said with a laugh.
In the end, that wasn’t neccessary But what was supposed to be a two-hour hike took four hours.
On July 25th Honolulu City Council’s Committee on Zoning, Planning and Housing deferred Bill 25, to modernize Honolulu’s building energy code. The measure proposed cost-effective changes that would help to dramatically reduce greenhouse gas emissions from our new homes and buildings while helping to foster our transition to clean transportation. The bill was drafted by the Office of Climate Change, Sustainability and Resiliency (OCCSR) and is consistent with a number of action items in the community-supported Oʻahu Resilience Strategy.
Although there was overwhelming written and oral testimony in support of Bill 25, with some amendments. However, there were concerns of “consumer choice” and “job loss” related to the solar water heaters (SWH) presented by Hawaii Gas and their employees. The OCCSR was able to directly dispel these concerns by citing the options for alternatives to SWH and no current job loss since the bill only affects new construction. Nonetheless, Bill 25 was deferred and Chair Menor assured it will come back in August to allow for further discussion.
Sierra Club as well as a cohort of other environmental organizations are continuing to work to get the bill moves forward with the EV-ready provision of Bill 25 amended to require capacity for 100% Level 2 charging (instead of only Level 1) for new building construction—a requirement that the city of Vancouver already has on the books. See our full testimony here (attachment inserted?)
Because we believe in an equitable transition to a carbon free economy, we want to encourage the city council to act with urgency when it comes to the climate change crisis and put pressure on Hawaiʻi Gas to evolve. They can move away from imported fracked gas and start using renewable gas from local sources to create the green jobs we desperately need. But for now, Hawaiʻi Gas is choosing to continue business as usual and threaten our collective future. We cannot let that happen and will be sending out action alerts for more community support when the next hearing is announced!
Turns out future sea level rise in Hawaii may be a bigger problem than previously thought.
A team of researchers from the University of Hawaii at Manoa and the state Department of Land and Natural Resources found that island land affected by sea level rise may be double previous projections.
The study, published Thursday in the Nature journal, Scientific Reports, indicates that even some low-elevation areas a mile or two inland are vulnerable in a world of rising oceans caused by climate change.
Lead researcher Tiffany Anderson, a faculty member at the Department of Earth Sciences at the UH-Manoa School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology, said, “A lot of areas will be affected. Losing beaches and access to them is really tragic for Hawaii and its culture.”
Early estimates about how a rising ocean would affect the islands were based on a “bathtub” approach in which a static sea surface is projected onto an unchanging terrain.
Charles “Chip” Fletcher, UH professor of geology and co-author of the the study, said this latest study is more realistic, factoring in additional processes, including chronic erosion and wave run-up, that can lead to more far-reaching and widespread flooding.
The bathtub approach alone ignores 35 to 54 percent of the land area exposed to one or more of the hazards, depending on location and sea level, Fletcher said.
The study also describes the discovery of a “critical point” at which marine flooding accelerates and reaches farther landward.
On Oahu, the critical point falls between 2 and 3 feet of sea level rise. At 2 feet of sea level rise, 6 square miles of the island will be affected by some kind of ocean flooding. At 3 feet of sea level rise, the affected area more than doubles to 12.5 square miles.
Especially vulnerable areas include Oahu’s low-lying south shore from Waikiki to the Daniel K. Inouye International Airport, and Ewa Beach.
Fletcher, associate dean of the UH-Manoa School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology, said sea levels are expected to rise anywhere from 2 to 8 feet by the end of the century, depending on the behavior of the melting Antarctic ice sheet.
At the current rate of acceleration, he said, rising seas will reach more than 2 feet above present by the end of the century, which agrees with modeling by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in 2013. But that report makes it clear that rapid melting of Antarctica or Greenland is not considered, and since then several studies have identified a rising probability that glaciers in West Antarctica are engaged in rapid and irreversible retreat.
Earlier this summer a report found that Antarctic ice is melting three times faster than only 10 years ago. If these trends continue and worsen, 6 to 8 feet of sea level rise becomes a possibility by the end of the century.
Fletcher said coastal Oahu will increasingly experience the same kind of nuisance flooding that already plagues the streets of Mapunapuna and the coastal areas of South Florida, where millions of people are at risk.
The most vulnerable areas will experience flooding at high tide on a daily basis within only two or three decades. Summer high tides will cause the greatest amount of inundation, but other times of the year will see flooding as well. Coastal communities throughout the state will experience widespread coastal flooding from the run up of waves at least once to a few times each summer.
The Hawaii study took two years to complete with help from the UH-Manoa High Performance Computer Cluster. The computer was fed the topography of the land and sea floor, a model of mathematical equations, and it made calculations of the waves and erosion along the shoreline.
On Oahu, Maui and Kauai, calculations were made every 65 feet, with the number of calculations reaching into the thousands. Statewide calculations were made from more than 10,000 shoreline locations under four scenarios of future sea level rise.
The modeling presented in this study was conducted to support the Hawai‘i Sea Level Rise Vulnerability and Adaptation Report, which was completed in December to help with government planning.
Adopted by the Hawaii Climate Commission, the report projects climate change-driven sea level rise of 3.2 feet over the next 30 to 70 years.
The report forecasts a future of coastal flooding, erosion and property damage affecting hotels, businesses, malls, schools and community centers, as well as the displacement of thousands of people from their homes.
According to the report, potential impacts of 3.2 feet of sea level rise on Oahu alone include the loss of $12.9 billion in structures and land, 3,800 structures, including hotels in Waikiki, the displacement of 13,300 residents and the loss of 17.7 miles of major roads.
The latest study, titled “Modeling multiple sea level rise stresses reveals up to twice the land at risk compared to strictly passive flooding methods” is online and free to everyone.
“This study is important because we want to head into the future prepared and knowledgeable and ready to develop policies that are empirically based,” Fletcher said.
The study was supported by the DLNR, H.K.L. Castle Foundation, the U.S. Geological Service Pacific Islands Climate Adaptation Science Center, Honolulu Board of Water Supply, Honolulu Office of Climate Change Sustainability and Resiliency, Hawaii Community Foundation, County of Kauai and the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration.
Anderson and team are currently incorporating rainfall into the computer model to determine how sea level-related flooding might be exacerbated during high-tide rainfall events.
To see how your neighborhood might be affected, go to pacioos.hawaii.edu/shoreline/slr-hawaii, which is an online mapping tool and companion to the Hawai‘i Sea Level Rise Vulnerability and Adaptation Report.
The potential impact of a 3.2-foot rise in sea level on Oahu would include:
Testing by the Navy on one of its massive underground fuel tanks at Red Hill suggests that tank corrosion at the facility is more extensive than it predicted, elevating concerns among Honolulu Board of Water Supply officials and environmentalists about the aging facility’s potential for leaks and the risk that poses to Oahu’s drinking water.
As part of an agreement with federal and state regulators, the Navy sampled 10 steel plates from one of its 20 tanks at the Red Hill Underground Fuel Storage Facility near Pearl Harbor. At least five of the plates, which measured 1-foot by 1-foot in size, showed considerable corrosion, according to the Board of Water Supply, which was briefed by the Navy on the findings. More troubling, parts of the tank’s original, quarter-inch-thick steel liner have become extremely thin and it appears the Navy overestimated the remaining thickness of some of the plates.
For instance, the Navy had anticipated the thickness of one steel plate to be between 0.135 to 0.187 inches. However, testing in June indicated that the remaining thickness was about half of that. The steel liner is the only thing separating the fuel from a release into the environment.
“The Navy’s predictions are so far off, and the corrosion is so far gone, that the risk of another significant leak, potentially catastrophic, is far more severe than previously thought,” said Marti Townsend, director for the Hawaii Sierra Club, in a press release. “Once the fuel escapes there is no way to get it back. It is irresponsible to continue the current course of action on these tanks.”
Townsend said the Navy needed to retire the tanks and relocate the fuel away from drinking water supplies.
Department of Health officials have said that fuel leaks, including a 27,000 gallon release at the facility in January 2014, are nearly impossible to clean up.
Officials have worried that past and future fuel leaks could migrate to an aquifer that supplies drinking water to residents from Moanalua to Hawaii Kai. The aquifer sits just 100 feet below the tanks. Fuel leaks also pose a risk to a nearby Navy well that supplies drinking water to about 65,000 people at Joint Base Pearl Harbor-Hickam.
If the aquifer is polluted by a major failure at one of the Red Hill tanks, the Navy’s own studies indicate the cleanup of the critical water supply could take decades or be cost prohibitive.
The corrosion testing is required as part of an agreement that the Navy entered into with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and the Hawaii Department of Health after the 2014 fuel release.
The Navy and regulators are also in the process of assessing six options for improving the tanks, including building new tanks, constructing a tank within a tank and double lining the tanks. The Navy informed regulators in August that it would likely be recommending the option that its own report described as involving “minimal changes to the status quo.” The corrosion testing is likely to increase pressure on the Navy to choose more aggressive tank protection options.
A plan for tank improvements will have to be approved by regulators who are expecting the Navy to take into account its corrosion study, as well as studies on leak- detection methods, in making its formal recommendation, which is due at the end of the year.
Ernie Lau, manager and chief engineer of the Board of Water Supply, said that the findings, which have not been released in a final report, raise concerns about the Navy’s current methods of inspection and repair of the tanks. The Board of Water Supply is urging the Navy to expand its corrosion sampling to more tanks.
The Navy didn’t respond directly to an emailed question from the Honolulu Star-Advertiser asking whether it would be willing to test for corrosion in additional tanks. Instead the Navy issued a news release, stating it would brief elected officials and regulators on the latest information during an annual state Senate task force meeting on Oct. 3.
The Navy stressed that the corrosion study is “ongoing and has not been completed,” with final results expected in late October and warned against making conclusions based on incomplete information.
“Ensuring tank integrity is the top priority and key to the exhaustive review approach we’ve agreed to,” said Lt. Cmdr. Blake Whittle, fuels director at Fleet Logistics Center Pearl Harbor, in the news release.
In recent years the Navy and the Defense Logistics Agency have spent $45.3 million to help identify the best alternative to improve the facility, while conducting groundwater studies, the Navy said. An additional $260 million has been spent since 2006 on maintaining and modernizing the facility and conducting environmental testing.
“We have not and will not rush to judgment or conclusions, and we will continue to keep the drinking water safe, no matter what,” said Rear Adm. Brian Fort, commander, Navy Region Hawaii and Naval Surface Group Middle Pacific. “There is much more work to do in studying, analyzing and then implementing all the right initiatives at Red Hill.”
More than 45,000 acres on Oahu should be designated as important agricultural lands and required to stay that way in perpetuity under a new plan submitted by Mayor Kirk Caldwell to the Honolulu City Council.
It’s taken half a century to get this far. Now comes the hard part: getting something through the Council.
In the 1978 Constitutional Convention, voters ratified an amendment to the state Constitution that mandated that so-called important agricultural lands, or IAL, be identified and designated.
In return for their commitment to continued agricultural use, property owners are supposed to receive incentives from the state and city governments.
Of Oahu’s 386,000 acres, roughly 128,000 (32 percent) are classified as agricultural, and about 12,300 already have IAL designation at the request of landowners.
A majority of the lands recommended for IAL status under the new plan are in Central Oahu (Mililani, Kunia and Wahiawa) and the North Shore (Haleiwa and Waialua), but there are also several large tracts along the Waianae Coast and the northeastern regions of Koolau Loa and Koolau Poko on the Windward side of the island.
The Council must act on the mayor’s plan, or its own version of it, and then submit it to the state Land Use Commission for a final decision.
Caldwell said community meetings held by the Department of Planning and Permitting across the island have been heated, and he expects that to continue. “People are wanting more or wanting less. Everyone seems to be upset one way or the other,” he said.
But Caldwell and DPP officials view it as imperative to finish the project and forward the city’s recommendations to the LUC.
“Agriculture has an important part on our island, not just the neighbor islands,” he said. “It’s about the long-term impacts — how do we remain resilient and sustainable, and how do we keep agriculture alive? Even if some of those lands aren’t farmed today, I believe sometime in the future if the economics change, they could become more viable for farming.”
Growing concern about climate change and sea-level rise have heightened the urgency to complete the study, said Josh Stanbro, Honolulu’s chief resiliency officer.
“Food security is one of the biggest challenges of climate change,” Stanbro said. “Increasingly, we’re seeing drought and extreme weather conditions hampering big global food production.”
Available water, sufficient labor and long-term availability of land are the biggest impediments facing local farmers, Stanbro said. By designating IAL properties, “this hopefully gives them the land base in the future to really farm on and put their roots out in and be able to invest for the long term because they’ll know the rug’s not going to be pulled from under their feet.”
However, some landowners strongly object to keeping their property designated agriculture in perpetuity.
“They don’t want to be designated because they want to have the ability to at some point to come in and change zoning in communities where they think they could build housing, and they’ve asked me to slow it down or to exclude their properties,” Caldwell said. “Some of it is really some of the best farmlands on Oahu, and we have not done that. So I’m sure they’ll be before the Council.”
David Arakawa, executive director of the landowner-backed Land Use Research Foundation and a member of the city’s technical advisory committee, said the situation is more nuanced than what Caldwell described, adding that he and others on the task force were surprised to learn through the Honolulu Star-Advertiser the Caldwell administration had finalized a plan, made it public and submitted it to the Council. Several LURF members have been in discussion with the mayor and city officials about which of their lands should be designated IAL, and they believed those talks were ongoing, he said.
At the very least, the committee should have been given the opportunity to review and make further suggestions on the final draft, he said.
He expressed concern that the city has not conducted surveys of the lands they propose to designate IAL and thus cannot be sure they meet the criteria for the designation.
“The city’s consultant primarily relied on technology (not actual site visits) to make its initial recommendations for IAL designations,” Arakawa said. That led to “inaccurate information and erroneous and unfair proposed IAL designations.”
The selection of IAL was “resource-based,” acting DPP Director Kathy Sokugawa said. “It didn’t matter who owned the land; it didn’t matter where the property lines were. We just went with the criteria.”
Initial designation was given to agricultural lands that met one or more of three top criteria: lands currently being used for agriculture; lands with enough available water for agriculture; and soil conditions conducive to agriculture.
Arakawa said committee members agree those are the most important criteria but believe water availability to be the most significant factor and an absolute requirement before lands can be designated as IAL.
LURF is also raising objections because the report submitted to the Council does not include landowner incentives as mandated by state law, Arakawa said.
“The county IAL designations can only take effect three years after incentives and protections for IAL and agricultural viability are enacted by the county,” Arakawa said. “The failure to enact IAL incentives could delay the county designation process for three years after the county enacts IAL incentives.”
Sokugawa said the city is looking at incentives and intends to submit a separate measure to the Council.
Because there are incentives already in place at both the state and city levels for standard agricultural use, it’s difficult for the city to find additional ones to provide those with lands designated IAL, Caldwell said.